A better runoff election

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BACKGROUND:
Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) is a term used in the United States for a single-winner voting system where ballots allow candidates to be ranked in order of preference, and counted in a runoff process, where everyone's top choice is counted each round, and the least supported candidates are eliminated, and votes for such candidates are transfered to the next choice. It's also called "Ranked Choice voting", "Contingency vote", "Supplementary vote", and "Single transferable vote".

IRV is a simple reform over plurality system where there's no runoff process because there's no spoiler effect. It is better than a regular runoff because voters only need to vote once. But it can be considered inferior to a regular runoff because it takes more work to rank choice, and voters don't know how deep they need to rank to make sure their vote counts. In comparison a regular runoff, voters have another chance to evaluate the remaining competition.

PROBLEM
The primary problem with IRV exists also in any runoff process - cases where you have 3 strong candidates. In any runoff process, candidates advance by having "core appeal" - support by people who consider such candidates better than all others. But to win majority support in the final round, a candidate must also have "compromise appeal". The FLAW of a forced-elimination runoff is somtimes a candidate will rise to second place to make the final round, but not have the compromise appeal to win. Such supporters can't move their vote back to a compromise candidate.

ONE SOLUTION
A solution to this problem is obtained in an election method called Condorcet, named after a French Mathematician. He proposed the "true majority opinion" among 3 or more choices be obtained by performing head-to-head competition. If any choice has majority support head-to-head over every other choice, that choice is called the "Condorcet winner". An ambiguity of this approach is that there may be no such winner. Like the "Rock, Paper, Scissors" game, it's possible in every pair competition to have a different winner.

It can be seen that "Plurality" is a pure "core appeal" method. It uses the "spoiler effect" to get coalitions of voters to "agree to agree" before the election to improve their chances to win. "Condorcet" is a pure "compromise appeal" method. A candidate can theoretically win by being no one's favorite but everyone's second choice.

RUNOFFS AS A COMPROMISE
Runoffs actually represent a simple hybrid of these two extremes. Runoff reward "core appeal" in the early rounds, and require "compromise appeal" in the final round.

A BETTER COMPROMISE THAN IRV
I believe two rounds of voting is good because it allows voters a chance in the second round to evaluate the remaining candidates. The first round is best seen as a "Primary" or "elimination round". Rank preference ballots can be used like IRV, but no winner is chosen. Instead the weakest candidates are eliminated one-by-one until all the remaining candidates exceed some predetermined level of support, like 20 or 25% perhaps.

Candidates who survive the elimination are all treated as equals in a Condorcet process. Voters again rank their choices, and the ballots are tallied with head-to-head competition to find a Condorcet winner.

In the rare case that no candidate passes as the Condorcet winner, then we must consider what to do, and there's no right answer. A revote might be done. My thought is that if no candidate can beat all competitors head-to-head that you have a "virtual tie", just like you could have an exact tie in a plurality system. In this case, if a single winner must be made, and the people can't decide, then there's no fair way to break the tie except by a random determination.

My reasoning for this compromise is:
1. Candidates require "core appeal" to pass the first round. These candidates have been "vetted" by a strong fraction of the voters and deserve consideration by the whole.
2. Candidates in the second round are never eliminated and voters are encouraged to look at all of them carefully to rank their choices.

The first round reduced the number of candidates to a number voters are willing to evaluate, and the second round picks the strongest majority winner (OR determines there is no majority winner in a virtual tie.)

FINAL NOTES:
Election theorists generally dislike runoffs, and IRV specifically, saying it contains a property call "Nonmonotonicity" which basically means sometimes voting against your favorite can help him win. This can be understood in a runoff process. Let's say your candidate polls around 40% against two competitors near 30%. If you believe one of your competitors has "compromise appeal" to beat your choice, you might consider voting against your 40% favorite, in favor of the weaker competitor to help eliminate your stronger competitor. This strategy is more powerful in sequential voting runoffs, while dangerous in IRV since you can't move your vote back to your real favorite there.

The compromise above retains a "spoiler effect" in that good compromise candidates can get eliminated in the first round, AND it retains a monotonicity failure potential. But at least it has a clear "threshold for viability". Candidates are encouraged to gain the threshold percentage, and like-minded voters are encouraged to work together on one strong candidate who can make the threshold.

I don't know of any weaknesses of this system. All election methods are somewhat "subjective", containing rules that encourage voters to compromise, and finding the balance between "having choices" and "having knowledge to make good choices" can never be solved absolutely. Different elections may choose different solutions. This solution is just one solution of many that tried to balance these issues.

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In addition, there is a part beats by dr dre solo hd white herve leger dress of the study proves the stock index futures increase or decrease the spot market volatility. Damodaran (1990) the S&P 500 index futures, found that the fluctuation of the  component increase with the rising black herve leger dress of. Lockwood and Lin (1990) on the dow Jones industrial index of the study show that, stock market gains the coefficient of variation of rising. Antoniou and Holme (1995) on the FT-SE100 index research shows that, the stock index futures trading increase the share price volatility, but improve the spot market reaction speed and quality of information. Bessembinder and Seguin (1992) 1978-1989, analyzes the S&P 500 index futures launch of the situation before and after, and found that the introduction of the futures market in stock market volatility reduced. Robinson (1999) for 1980-1997 FT-SE100 index of the spot market research showed that the futures market in stock market volatility after decrease. Antoniouetal (1999) to the German DAX index and futures research shows that, the stock index futures reduce the volatility of the stock black herve leger dress market. Kuserk and Cocke (2002) to the U.S. stock market the empirical research shows that, carry out stock index futures trading, due to attract a lot of ibeats by dre arbitrage, and the hedgers entering the market, the stock market size and liquidity has greatly raised, and the stock index futures market and cash market trading volume of its foundation is two-way promote the situation. Damodaran (2007) on the S&P 500 index YangBenGu of the empirical research shows that, and carry out stock index futures trading after five years, the market value of YangBenGu index increased by the YangBenGu of more than two times. This shows that the launch of stock index futures will promote the component index trading activity, improve the liquidity of individual stocks. Jegadeesh and Subrahmanyam (2009) to study the S&P 500 index futures on the spot market liquidity to spread the judge index as liquidity. They think, when have the information the investors to trade futures market, market maker in information disadvantage, so the stock price expand, liquidity is poorer
In conclusion, foreign scholars is the main point of: stock index futures out to the spot market liquidity in the effect of positive and negative two aspects. Reverse effect from view, stock index futures and spot stocks have between substitution effect, leading justin bieber justbeats to the launch of stock index futures may reduce the spot market liquidity; And from a positive influence on view, out of stock index futures, stock market trading will promote the active and reasonable price fluctuations, arbitrage and hedging incremental capital listed by demand, may improve the spot market liquidity. Out of stock index futures monster turbine pro copper for the spot market liquidity is the effect of both the positive and negative aspects of the comprehensive results. From the whole consideration, and in the long run out of stock index futures will promote the spot market trading active, stability and effective price discovery, make the stock market more healthy development.
Above about of stock index futures research can show that stock index futures may influence in the short term to the volatility of the stock market, but in the long run, such effects are not so obvious. Of course, our country of stock-index futures time only half a year, plus China's capital market and not very mature, out of stock index futures may be limited time to the volatility of the stock market has a great influence, to the question further studies are needed.

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